Scouting Report
Nick Schmaltz holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Thornton wins 38.8% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 46.2% vs Schmaltz 48.4% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 54.9%
Defensive zone
Thornton 71.5%
Neutral zone
Thornton 60.8%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Thornton
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Thornton
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Thornton
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Thornton
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (161)
42.9% (133)
+0.6%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
55.1% (89)
-5.1%
On power play, Schmaltz has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Thornton is 38.8% vs right-shot opponents (67).
Thornton shoots left. Schmaltz is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (178).
Home / Away
Thornton
Schmaltz
Home
41.5% (106)
41.6% (125)
Away
47.8% (69)
54.4% (114)
By Period
Thornton
Schmaltz
P1
50.8%
40.0%
P2
41.0%
59.5%
P3
40.0%
45.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
44.0%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 10:42 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 06:54 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |