Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Reinhart 43.3% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 69.5%
Defensive zone
Thornton 66.9%
Neutral zone
Thornton 70.0%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 68.2%
68.2%
31.8%
Thornton
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Thornton
Reinhart
Last 9: Thornton 5-4 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Reinhart
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
2
3
Thornton
Reinhart
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Reinhart
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
42.5% (2,173)
+11.0%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
46.5% (525)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
41.3% (339)
+15.4%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. Reinhart is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,283).
Home / Away
Thornton
Reinhart
Home
55.8% (4,271)
44.9% (1,528)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
41.2% (1,509)
By Period
Thornton
Reinhart
P1
55.0%
44.5%
P2
53.3%
40.5%
P3
54.4%
44.5%
OT
56.4%
43.5%
Final 5 min
53.7%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 14:51 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 2 | 12:44 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 26, 2016 | 3 | 15:51 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 26, 2016 | 2 | 01:02 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 3 | 17:45 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 3 | 05:39 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 2 | 04:16 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 11:10 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |