Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 49.0%). Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 49.5% vs Johnson 49.2% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 52.9%
Defensive zone
Johnson 52.1%
Neutral zone
Thornton 54.4%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Thornton
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Thornton
Johnson
Last 5: Thornton 4-1 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Johnson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Johnson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (583)
47.2% (286)
+1.7%
Power Play
52.5% (59)
61.8% (55)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
33.3% (12)
+25.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Thornton is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (247).
Thornton shoots left. Johnson is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (263).
Home / Away
Thornton
Johnson
Home
51.6% (341)
55.0% (151)
Away
47.0% (313)
44.6% (202)
By Period
Thornton
Johnson
P1
53.9%
42.3%
P2
46.9%
56.2%
P3
47.0%
47.3%
Final 5 min
52.0%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.4%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 17:57 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 13:21 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 06:10 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |