Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 52.6% vs Karlsson 46.1% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 58.0%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 80.6%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 56.1%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Thornton
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Thornton
Karlsson
Last 8: Thornton 3-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
Karlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
3
Thornton
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Thornton
Karlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (577)
46.5% (744)
+5.3%
Power Play
57.7% (168)
16.7% (18)
+41.0%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
45.0% (149)
-7.5%
On power play, Thornton has a +41.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Thornton is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Thornton shoots left. Karlsson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (566).
Home / Away
Thornton
Karlsson
Home
53.0% (379)
44.0% (425)
Away
52.9% (374)
47.1% (486)
By Period
Thornton
Karlsson
P1
53.3%
49.7%
P2
50.7%
41.4%
P3
54.3%
46.7%
OT
62.5%
22.2%
Final 5 min
51.9%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
53.0%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2015 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 22, 2015 | 3 | 06:06 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 22, 2015 | 3 | 02:55 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Nov 22, 2015 | 2 | 14:34 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 22, 2015 | 2 | 14:31 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 22, 2015 | 2 | 09:02 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 2 | 11:25 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 1 | 06:11 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |