Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Larsson 50.6% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 96.3%
Defensive zone
Larsson 62.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 67.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 79.7%
79.7%
20.3%
Pavelski
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Pavelski
Larsson
Last 7: Pavelski 5-2 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
0
Pavelski
Larsson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
0
2
Pavelski
Larsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
53.8% (773)
+0.2%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
0.0% (2)
+57.1%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
39.9% (218)
+1.8%
On power play, Pavelski has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Pavelski shoots right. Larsson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (356).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Larsson
Home
55.2% (458)
51.2% (490)
Away
51.4% (531)
50.1% (503)
By Period
Pavelski
Larsson
P1
54.0%
50.6%
P2
54.5%
53.1%
P3
50.5%
48.3%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 15:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 01:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 17:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 06:45 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |