Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 49.5% vs Hayes 47.7% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 19-17 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 72.4%
Defensive zone
Larsson 66.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 51.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Larsson
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
19
(36 meetings)
17
19
Larsson
Hayes
Last 10: Larsson 4-6 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
10
Larsson
Hayes
11 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Larsson
Hayes
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
12
5
Larsson
Hayes
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (4,382)
47.5% (6,708)
+3.0%
Power Play
47.7% (153)
51.7% (702)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (714)
45.3% (697)
-1.5%
On power play, Hayes has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Larsson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,402).
Larsson shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Home / Away
Larsson
Hayes
Home
51.2% (2,493)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
48.0% (2,756)
47.3% (4,125)
By Period
Larsson
Hayes
P1
51.6%
47.5%
P2
49.7%
47.6%
P3
47.2%
47.9%
OT
52.3%
54.1%
Final 5 min
49.4%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2020 | 2 | 10:23 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 2 | 10:04 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 15, 2019 | 2 | 01:37 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 15, 2019 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 4, 2018 | 3 | 12:40 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 4, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 4, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 4, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 3 | 14:28 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 3 | 12:45 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 3 | 04:52 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 3 | 04:39 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 2 | 18:56 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 2 | 06:20 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 2 | 06:12 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 2 | 06:07 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 1 | 16:15 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 1 | 02:05 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |