Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 51.5%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 50.6% vs Hertl 51.4% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 80.5%
Defensive zone
Larsson 93.2%
Neutral zone
Larsson 64.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Larsson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Larsson
Hertl
Last 6: Larsson 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Larsson
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larsson
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (773)
51.7% (869)
+2.1%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
55.7% (176)
-55.7%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (218)
44.9% (138)
-5.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +55.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larsson is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (637).
Larsson shoots left. Hertl is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Larsson
Hertl
Home
51.2% (490)
51.8% (583)
Away
50.1% (503)
51.2% (600)
By Period
Larsson
Hertl
P1
50.6%
52.5%
P2
53.1%
50.9%
P3
48.3%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
53.3%
Final 5 min
49.8%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
50.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 16:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 16:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 06:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 01:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 12:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 07:17 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |