Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larsson wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 46.9% vs Hertl 52.3% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 89.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 66.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 85.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 77.5%
22.5%
77.5%
Larsson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Larsson
Hertl
Last 7: Larsson 5-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
3
0
Larsson
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Larsson
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (345)
51.6% (1,084)
-4.9%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
61.0% (246)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (59)
44.1% (136)
-5.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larsson is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (266).
Larsson shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Larsson
Hertl
Home
52.1% (167)
55.2% (696)
Away
42.4% (255)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Larsson
Hertl
P1
50.0%
55.4%
P2
46.7%
54.8%
P3
42.6%
48.9%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
46.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2021 | OT | 02:46 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 3 | 18:31 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 3 | 13:14 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 3 | 01:38 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 2 | 14:46 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 1 | 11:22 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 1 | 02:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |