Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 49.5% vs Hertl 54.2% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 26-20 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Larsson 50.7%
Defensive zone
Larsson 89.1%
Neutral zone
Larsson 69.1%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
Larsson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
26
(46 meetings)
20
26
Larsson
Hertl
Last 10: Larsson 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
20
Larsson
Hertl
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
12
3
Larsson
Hertl
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
5
3
Larsson
Hertl
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (4,382)
53.8% (8,268)
-3.3%
Power Play
47.7% (153)
59.3% (1,975)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (714)
46.3% (806)
-2.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larsson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,402).
Larsson shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Larsson
Hertl
Home
51.2% (2,493)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
48.0% (2,756)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Larsson
Hertl
P1
51.6%
53.6%
P2
49.7%
54.1%
P3
47.2%
55.3%
OT
52.3%
46.5%
Final 5 min
49.4%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2021 | OT | 02:46 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 3 | 18:31 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 3 | 13:14 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 3 | 01:38 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 2 | 14:46 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 1 | 11:22 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 1 | 02:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 3 | 17:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 07:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 2 | 11:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 1 | 17:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 19:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 16:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 11:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 06:46 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 01:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |