Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lizotte wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.8% vs Tavares 57.7% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lizotte 54.3%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 88.7%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 74.9%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Lizotte
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Lizotte
Tavares
Last 8: Lizotte 1-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
3
Lizotte
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
3
Lizotte
Tavares
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Lizotte
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (299)
57.7% (998)
-4.2%
Power Play
0.0% (4)
60.5% (271)
-60.5%
Penalty Kill
38.6% (44)
56.4% (39)
-17.8%
On power play, Tavares has a +60.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lizotte is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (207).
Lizotte shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Tavares
Home
52.0% (198)
59.7% (610)
Away
49.7% (149)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Lizotte
Tavares
P1
50.0%
57.2%
P2
50.9%
58.5%
P3
52.2%
59.4%
OT
0.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
60.9%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
51.0%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 14:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:10 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 01:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 01:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 12:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 03:02 | Defensive | John Tavares |