Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +20.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.2% vs Tavares 57.7% (-20.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 78.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 92.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 91.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 83.7%
16.3%
83.7%
Hughes
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Hughes
Tavares
Last 5: Hughes 4-1 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
3
0
Hughes
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (623)
57.7% (998)
-19.8%
Power Play
33.3% (33)
60.5% (271)
-27.2%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
56.4% (39)
-20.0%
On power play, Tavares has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Hughes is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Hughes shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
Hughes
Tavares
Home
36.6% (314)
59.7% (610)
Away
38.5% (353)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Hughes
Tavares
P1
36.4%
57.2%
P2
35.6%
58.5%
P3
41.8%
59.4%
OT
0.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
36.4%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 06:49 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 02:26 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 02:21 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 07:38 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |