Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 55.7% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 54.6% vs Tavares 52.7% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 61.8%
Defensive zone
Carter 69.5%
Neutral zone
Carter 69.4%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 68.2%
68.2%
31.8%
Carter
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Carter
Tavares
Last 6: Carter 4-2 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Carter
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
3
1
Carter
Tavares
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (307)
52.9% (1,239)
+0.2%
Power Play
62.5% (64)
54.7% (309)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
70.4% (27)
50.0% (178)
+20.4%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Carter is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (282).
Carter shoots right. Tavares is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (602).
Home / Away
Carter
Tavares
Home
58.9% (285)
55.0% (864)
Away
47.8% (113)
50.8% (862)
By Period
Carter
Tavares
P1
54.9%
51.8%
P2
57.5%
51.4%
P3
56.0%
54.5%
OT
25.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.1%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
55.8%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2017 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 15, 2017 | 3 | 14:20 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 15, 2017 | 3 | 07:05 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 15, 2017 | 3 | 06:39 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 15, 2017 | 3 | 03:46 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 15, 2017 | 2 | 13:35 | Offensive | John Tavares |