Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Carter wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Tavares 59.8% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 57.9%
Defensive zone
Carter 82.5%
Neutral zone
Carter 55.3%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Carter
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Carter
Tavares
Last 10: Carter 2-8 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
5
Carter
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Carter
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carter
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
60.9% (1,043)
-3.0%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
60.4% (278)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
47.6% (21)
-2.2%
On even strength, Tavares has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Carter shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Home / Away
Carter
Tavares
Home
58.2% (543)
63.5% (684)
Away
55.9% (594)
57.6% (658)
By Period
Carter
Tavares
P1
57.5%
60.3%
P2
57.1%
60.4%
P3
55.8%
60.1%
OT
68.2%
92.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 07:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 03:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 19:37 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 19:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 08:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 14:44 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 10:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 16:56 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 12:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |