Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Shaw shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Shaw 50.2% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 90.8%
Defensive zone
Shaw 66.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 64.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Tavares
Shaw
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Tavares
Shaw
Last 5: Tavares 3-2 Shaw
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Shaw
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Shaw
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Shaw
0
1
Tavares
Shaw
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Shaw
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
57.5% (80)
+3.4%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
100.0% (1)
-39.6%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
32.4% (34)
+15.2%
On power play, Shaw has a +39.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Shaw shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Tavares shoots left. Shaw is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (78).
Home / Away
Tavares
Shaw
Home
63.5% (684)
56.9% (58)
Away
57.6% (658)
43.9% (57)
By Period
Tavares
Shaw
P1
60.3%
43.6%
P2
60.4%
50.0%
P3
60.1%
57.9%
Final 5 min
57.4%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Shaw
46.0%▼
50.5%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 06:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 2 | 13:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 1 | 04:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 11:18 | Neutral | Logan Shaw |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 12:26 | Defensive | Logan Shaw |