Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Shaw 45.5% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 71.9%
Defensive zone
Shaw 70.9%
Neutral zone
Shaw 55.7%
Result
Logan Shaw favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Tavares
Shaw
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Tavares
Shaw
Last 6: Tavares 3-3 Shaw
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Shaw
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Shaw
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Shaw
0
2
Tavares
Shaw
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Shaw
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
46.4% (418)
+7.6%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
66.7% (6)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
35.4% (96)
+15.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Shaw shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Shaw is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Tavares
Shaw
Home
56.1% (10,503)
46.2% (236)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
43.3% (284)
By Period
Tavares
Shaw
P1
55.0%
41.3%
P2
54.1%
46.4%
P3
54.1%
46.9%
Final 5 min
54.8%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Shaw
46.0%▼
50.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 06:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 2 | 13:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 1 | 04:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 11:18 | Neutral | Logan Shaw |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 12:26 | Defensive | Logan Shaw |
| Mar 14, 2016 | 2 | 12:25 | Neutral | Logan Shaw |