Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kasper shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Kasper 49.8% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 82.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 54.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 80.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Tavares
Kasper
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Tavares
Kasper
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Kasper
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Kasper
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kasper
1
2
Tavares
Kasper
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Kasper
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kasper
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
51.1% (350)
+6.9%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
33.3% (9)
+23.7%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
31.6% (19)
+26.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +26.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kasper shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Kasper is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (252).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kasper
Home
57.8% (614)
51.1% (184)
Away
57.8% (554)
48.5% (194)
By Period
Tavares
Kasper
P1
58.0%
53.8%
P2
56.9%
52.2%
P3
58.4%
42.6%
OT
57.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.5%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 10:16 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 14:59 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 05:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 13:22 | Defensive | Marco Kasper |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:05 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 01:14 | Defensive | Marco Kasper |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 14:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 04:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 10:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:50 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |