Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Granlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Granlund 48.4% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 60.9%
Defensive zone
Granlund 62.1%
Neutral zone
Granlund 50.9%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Tavares
Granlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Tavares
Granlund
Last 6: Tavares 3-3 Granlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Granlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
1
2
Tavares
Granlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Granlund
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
48.7% (446)
+9.3%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
56.6% (99)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
31.1% (61)
+26.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +26.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Granlund shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Granlund is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
Tavares
Granlund
Home
57.8% (614)
53.3% (255)
Away
57.8% (554)
44.4% (351)
By Period
Tavares
Granlund
P1
58.0%
51.3%
P2
56.9%
48.8%
P3
58.4%
44.4%
OT
57.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
57.8%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Granlund
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 17:58 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 01:55 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 09:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 02:43 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 02:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |