Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 53.8%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.2% vs Thompson 53.4% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 72.2%
Defensive zone
Thompson 74.6%
Neutral zone
Thompson 59.8%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Tavares
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Tavares
Thompson
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Thompson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Thompson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,201)
54.5% (628)
-1.5%
Power Play
61.5% (262)
47.4% (19)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (65)
51.3% (113)
+2.5%
On power play, Tavares has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Tavares is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Tavares shoots left. Thompson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Tavares
Thompson
Home
57.5% (762)
55.6% (329)
Away
51.4% (766)
52.4% (431)
By Period
Tavares
Thompson
P1
54.5%
55.3%
P2
53.2%
48.1%
P3
55.5%
58.4%
Final 5 min
57.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.5%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2019 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 2 | 06:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 1 | 16:08 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 1 | 11:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 1 | 02:18 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 1 | 00:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 2 | 11:15 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 2 | 11:08 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 1 | 18:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 1 | 06:33 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |