Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 44 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Thompson 52.9% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 59-57 in 116 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 80.3%
Defensive zone
Thompson 79.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Tavares
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
59
-
57
(116 meetings)
59
57
Tavares
Thompson
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
31
13
Tavares
Thompson
44 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
13
28
Tavares
Thompson
41 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
15
16
Tavares
Thompson
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
54.1% (5,812)
-0.1%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
54.8% (135)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
47.9% (1,381)
+2.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Home / Away
Tavares
Thompson
Home
56.1% (10,503)
54.8% (3,626)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
51.1% (3,717)
By Period
Tavares
Thompson
P1
55.0%
53.2%
P2
54.1%
52.9%
P3
54.1%
52.8%
OT
55.9%
47.9%
Final 5 min
54.8%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2022 | 3 | 11:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 19:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 13:01 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| May 14, 2021 | 3 | 03:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| May 14, 2021 | 2 | 16:23 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 17:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 00:16 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 3 | 11:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 3 | 11:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 1 | 15:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 1 | 12:22 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 3 | 03:14 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 1 | 17:05 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |