Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Thompson 54.3% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.5%
Defensive zone
Thompson 77.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 54.6%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 61.6%
38.4%
61.6%
Tavares
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Tavares
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Tavares
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
55.5% (236)
+5.4%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
60.0% (5)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
56.5% (46)
-8.9%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. Thompson is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
Tavares
Thompson
Home
63.5% (684)
53.1% (128)
Away
57.6% (658)
57.9% (159)
By Period
Tavares
Thompson
P1
60.3%
59.0%
P2
60.4%
55.4%
P3
60.1%
52.6%
Final 5 min
57.4%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2022 | 3 | 11:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 19:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 13:01 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |