Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 28 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Bonino 50.0% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Bonino leads 41-38 in 79 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 71.5%
Defensive zone
Bonino 82.8%
Neutral zone
Bonino 62.5%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Tavares
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
38
-
41
(79 meetings)
38
41
Tavares
Bonino
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
21
7
Tavares
Bonino
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
10
23
Tavares
Bonino
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
7
11
Tavares
Bonino
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
50.6% (8,315)
+3.4%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
54.1% (972)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
44.6% (1,693)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Bonino is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (6,917).
Home / Away
Tavares
Bonino
Home
56.1% (10,503)
51.2% (5,507)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
48.8% (5,480)
By Period
Tavares
Bonino
P1
55.0%
50.6%
P2
54.1%
48.5%
P3
54.1%
51.1%
OT
55.9%
45.7%
Final 5 min
54.8%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 15:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:07 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 08:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 06:50 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 14:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 14:03 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 19:53 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 11:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 05:16 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 18:42 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 05:02 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 09:21 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 3 | 00:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 2 | 13:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 1 | 07:35 | Neutral | John Tavares |