Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Bonino 48.5% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.9%
Defensive zone
Bonino 60.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 69.1%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Tavares
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Tavares
Bonino
Last 5: Tavares 3-2 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Bonino
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
48.1% (324)
+9.4%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
57.9% (38)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
44.3% (88)
+14.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Bonino is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Tavares
Bonino
Home
61.0% (661)
52.0% (244)
Away
55.3% (584)
43.7% (206)
By Period
Tavares
Bonino
P1
58.6%
48.0%
P2
57.8%
42.9%
P3
58.4%
53.9%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
63.4%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.3%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 14:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 14:03 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 19:53 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |