Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Bonino 50.8% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 84.1%
Defensive zone
Bonino 77.8%
Neutral zone
Bonino 55.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
Tavares
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Tavares
Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Bonino
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Tavares
Bonino
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
51.8% (305)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
48.5% (101)
-5.6%
On even strength, Tavares has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Bonino is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Tavares
Bonino
Home
57.5% (668)
53.1% (177)
Away
61.1% (684)
49.3% (229)
By Period
Tavares
Bonino
P1
58.0%
55.9%
P2
60.1%
49.6%
P3
61.0%
47.6%
OT
27.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
42.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 15:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:07 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 08:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 06:50 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |