Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kapanen on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Kapanen 47.8% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 80.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 63.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 78.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 71.9%
71.9%
28.1%
Tavares
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Tavares
Kapanen
Last 6: Tavares 4-2 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Kapanen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
2
Tavares
Kapanen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Kapanen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
47.5% (514)
+10.5%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
55.0% (40)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
39.5% (38)
+18.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Kapanen is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (438).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kapanen
Home
57.8% (614)
47.9% (307)
Away
57.8% (554)
47.0% (285)
By Period
Tavares
Kapanen
P1
58.0%
42.7%
P2
56.9%
51.4%
P3
58.4%
48.4%
OT
57.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 16:34 | Defensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 10:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 08:17 | Defensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |