Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kapanen on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Kapanen 47.5% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 81.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 57.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 71.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 67.9%
67.9%
32.1%
Tavares
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Tavares
Kapanen
Last 6: Tavares 4-2 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Kapanen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
2
Tavares
Kapanen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Kapanen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
47.2% (559)
+6.8%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
51.0% (51)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
39.5% (38)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Kapanen is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kapanen
Home
56.1% (10,503)
47.1% (340)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
47.1% (308)
By Period
Tavares
Kapanen
P1
55.0%
42.7%
P2
54.1%
50.2%
P3
54.1%
48.2%
OT
55.9%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 16:34 | Defensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 10:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 08:17 | Defensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |