Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 55.1%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 29 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Stastny 55.1% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 52-40 in 92 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 58.9%
Defensive zone
Stastny 68.7%
Neutral zone
Stastny 56.1%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Tavares
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
52
-
40
(92 meetings)
52
40
Tavares
Stastny
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
18
11
Tavares
Stastny
29 total
Defensive Zone
Even
13
13
Tavares
Stastny
26 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
21
16
Tavares
Stastny
37 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
54.6% (10,616)
-0.6%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
59.1% (1,994)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
52.9% (1,119)
-2.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stastny
Home
56.1% (10,503)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Tavares
Stastny
P1
55.0%
56.3%
P2
54.1%
55.4%
P3
54.1%
53.5%
OT
55.9%
62.9%
Final 5 min
54.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 08:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 01:40 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 12:42 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 10:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 03:19 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 17:31 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 02:09 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| May 14, 2021 | 2 | 06:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| May 14, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 16:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 1 | 09:33 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 02:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 12:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 12:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 1 | 11:15 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 06:53 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 11:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |