Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Stastny 55.4% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 55.5%
Defensive zone
Stastny 64.2%
Neutral zone
Stastny 55.5%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Tavares
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Tavares
Stastny
Last 7: Tavares 3-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Stastny
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
3
Tavares
Stastny
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
59.2% (370)
+1.7%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
40.9% (44)
+19.5%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
51.7% (58)
-4.1%
On power play, Tavares has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. Stastny is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stastny
Home
63.5% (684)
57.7% (215)
Away
57.6% (658)
55.6% (257)
By Period
Tavares
Stastny
P1
60.3%
57.7%
P2
60.4%
54.2%
P3
60.1%
57.7%
OT
92.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 08:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 01:40 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 12:42 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 10:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 03:19 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 17:31 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 02:09 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |