Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.7%). Tavares wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.2% vs Stastny 54.2% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 56.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 52.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 52.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Tavares
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tavares
Stastny
Last 5: Tavares 1-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Tavares
Stastny
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Stastny
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Tavares
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,201)
52.8% (657)
+0.2%
Power Play
61.5% (262)
61.0% (118)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (65)
61.1% (72)
-7.3%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Tavares is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Tavares shoots left. Stastny is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stastny
Home
57.5% (762)
53.0% (464)
Away
51.4% (766)
56.7% (383)
By Period
Tavares
Stastny
P1
54.5%
47.9%
P2
53.2%
59.6%
P3
55.5%
54.9%
OT
60.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
57.3%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.5%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2019 | 3 | 15:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 3 | 00:56 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 08:52 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 02:46 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 04:45 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |