Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Greene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Greene 45.0% (+13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 56.9%
Defensive zone
Greene 87.6%
Neutral zone
Greene 71.8%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 74.2%
25.8%
74.2%
Tavares
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Tavares
Greene
Last 8: Tavares 3-5 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Greene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greene
0
3
Tavares
Greene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Greene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
44.1% (506)
+13.9%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
47.5% (59)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
43.6% (149)
+14.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Greene is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Tavares
Greene
Home
57.8% (614)
47.4% (382)
Away
57.8% (554)
40.7% (332)
By Period
Tavares
Greene
P1
58.0%
47.2%
P2
56.9%
39.0%
P3
58.4%
47.0%
OT
57.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Greene
40.0%▬
40.5%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:44 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:23 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:28 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 02:53 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |