Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Greene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Greene 44.7% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 59.9%
Defensive zone
Greene 88.5%
Neutral zone
Greene 72.2%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 74.3%
25.7%
74.3%
Tavares
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Tavares
Greene
Last 8: Tavares 3-5 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Greene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greene
0
3
Tavares
Greene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Greene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
43.7% (524)
+10.3%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
47.5% (59)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
43.6% (149)
+7.0%
On even strength, Tavares has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Greene is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (546).
Home / Away
Tavares
Greene
Home
56.1% (10,503)
47.4% (382)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
40.3% (350)
By Period
Tavares
Greene
P1
55.0%
46.4%
P2
54.1%
38.9%
P3
54.1%
47.0%
OT
55.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Greene
40.0%▬
40.5%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:44 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:23 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:28 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 02:53 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |