Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +16.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Strome 42.3% (+16.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 82.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 82.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 82.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 82.6%
82.6%
17.4%
Tavares
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Tavares
Strome
Last 9: Tavares 6-3 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
0
2
Tavares
Strome
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Strome
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Strome
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
41.2% (1,040)
+16.5%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
43.0% (151)
+17.5%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
51.4% (35)
+5.0%
On power play, Tavares has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. Strome is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (900).
Home / Away
Tavares
Strome
Home
59.7% (610)
40.1% (581)
Away
57.0% (698)
43.1% (645)
By Period
Tavares
Strome
P1
57.2%
41.4%
P2
58.5%
42.9%
P3
59.4%
40.5%
OT
46.7%
45.5%
Final 5 min
57.0%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
41.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 16:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 16:08 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 06:29 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:33 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 10:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 09:44 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 10:39 | Neutral | John Tavares |