Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +17.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Kempe wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.0% vs Toews 57.9% (-17.4%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 14-12 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Kempe 71.1%
Defensive zone
Kempe 63.1%
Neutral zone
Kempe 65.1%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Kempe
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
14
(26 meetings)
12
14
Kempe
Toews
Last 10: Kempe 5-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
8
4
Kempe
Toews
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
5
Kempe
Toews
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
3
5
Kempe
Toews
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,881)
57.2% (13,047)
-17.0%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
63.3% (3,252)
-20.2%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
53.6% (1,810)
-11.0%
On power play, Toews has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Kempe is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,356).
Kempe shoots left. Toews is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (11,653).
Home / Away
Kempe
Toews
Home
42.4% (1,045)
59.7% (9,192)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
56.1% (8,948)
By Period
Kempe
Toews
P1
39.5%
58.6%
P2
40.1%
57.8%
P3
42.2%
57.3%
OT
37.0%
58.9%
Final 5 min
37.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:19 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 01:06 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 14:35 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 15:33 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 04:29 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 01:16 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 27, 2019 | 3 | 05:56 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 27, 2019 | 3 | 03:08 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 27, 2019 | 3 | 00:12 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 27, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 27, 2019 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 27, 2019 | 1 | 02:33 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 08:19 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 04:58 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 01:07 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 3 | 04:54 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 2 | 07:25 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 2 | 02:58 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 1 | 16:26 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |