Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Smith wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 47.9% vs Toews 54.6% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 85.2%
Defensive zone
Smith 52.5%
Neutral zone
Smith 68.1%
Result
Craig Smith favored at 57.0%
57.0%
43.0%
Smith
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Smith
Toews
Last 7: Smith 2-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
5
Smith
Toews
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
2
0
Smith
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (95)
54.8% (1,153)
-9.5%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
58.8% (233)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
50.0% (166)
+0.0%
On even strength, Toews has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Smith is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Smith shoots right. Toews is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Smith
Toews
Home
43.5% (62)
58.7% (784)
Away
49.0% (49)
51.0% (768)
By Period
Smith
Toews
P1
44.1%
54.0%
P2
46.7%
57.4%
P3
45.2%
52.6%
OT
100.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
47.6%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
45.9%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2017 | 2 | 04:14 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 8, 2017 | 1 | 14:40 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 3 | 17:03 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 2 | 02:52 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 3 | 00:09 | Neutral | Craig Smith |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Craig Smith |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 2 | 16:46 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |