Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Toews 61.9% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 85.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 80.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 80.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 85.0%
85.0%
15.0%
Stepan
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Stepan
Toews
Last 5: Stepan 0-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
5
Stepan
Toews
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
61.1% (650)
-5.8%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
71.9% (192)
-71.9%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
59.6% (99)
-8.8%
On power play, Toews has a +71.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Toews is 66.7% vs right-shot opponents (384).
Home / Away
Stepan
Toews
Home
57.7% (213)
64.8% (560)
Away
50.7% (209)
60.6% (381)
By Period
Stepan
Toews
P1
56.3%
62.3%
P2
48.9%
63.9%
P3
57.1%
62.8%
Final 5 min
57.6%
60.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 15:45 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 15:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 03:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 04:17 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |