Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 51.9% vs Toews 54.6% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 68.3%
Defensive zone
Spezza 63.6%
Neutral zone
Spezza 66.2%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 65.9%
65.9%
34.1%
Spezza
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Spezza
Toews
Last 6: Spezza 1-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
Spezza
Toews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
3
Spezza
Toews
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (526)
54.8% (1,153)
-3.5%
Power Play
57.7% (123)
58.8% (233)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (29)
50.0% (166)
-5.2%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Spezza is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Spezza shoots right. Toews is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Spezza
Toews
Home
53.7% (374)
58.7% (784)
Away
50.3% (304)
51.0% (768)
By Period
Spezza
Toews
P1
50.2%
54.0%
P2
50.2%
57.4%
P3
56.2%
52.6%
OT
66.7%
64.7%
Final 5 min
48.0%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.2%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2016 | 2 | 05:24 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 2 | 05:09 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 1 | 19:56 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 1 | 16:51 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 1 | 03:10 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |