Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 58.2% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 57.3% vs Toews 56.0% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 50.3%
Defensive zone
Toews 53.8%
Neutral zone
Toews 54.1%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Spezza
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Spezza
Toews
Last 10: Spezza 3-7 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
4
Spezza
Toews
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
2
Spezza
Toews
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (697)
56.5% (1,310)
+1.5%
Power Play
60.0% (105)
59.7% (325)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
51.0% (245)
+9.0%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Spezza is 58.2% vs left-shot opponents (591).
Spezza shoots right. Toews is 59.1% vs right-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Spezza
Toews
Home
58.2% (376)
56.6% (927)
Away
58.2% (431)
56.0% (953)
By Period
Spezza
Toews
P1
63.3%
56.3%
P2
54.9%
55.8%
P3
57.4%
57.3%
OT
33.3%
48.6%
Final 5 min
57.1%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
58.2%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2019 | 2 | 11:11 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 5, 2019 | 1 | 19:06 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 5, 2019 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 14:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 10:41 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 06:58 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 2 | 06:11 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 3 | 08:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 2 | 19:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 1 | 05:22 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 1 | 02:43 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |