Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Staal 54.6% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 53.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 81.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 60.2%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Toews
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Toews
Staal
Last 5: Toews 2-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Staal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Toews
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
Toews
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
56.1% (955)
+6.4%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
66.9% (142)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
43.0% (242)
+3.9%
On power play, Staal has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Toews shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Toews
Staal
Home
60.9% (435)
55.4% (663)
Away
62.0% (434)
54.4% (676)
By Period
Toews
Staal
P1
59.8%
55.1%
P2
65.7%
54.7%
P3
58.8%
53.9%
OT
80.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 18:55 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 12:01 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:31 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |