Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.6% vs 57.8%). Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Toews wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.0% vs Staal 57.3% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 58.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 76.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 55.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Toews
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Toews
Staal
Last 10: Toews 5-5 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
2
Toews
Staal
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
5
Toews
Staal
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (1,200)
56.6% (1,075)
+1.6%
Power Play
62.8% (250)
66.7% (141)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (123)
58.1% (179)
-4.4%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Toews is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (943).
Toews shoots left. Staal is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (946).
Home / Away
Toews
Staal
Home
59.8% (805)
57.7% (735)
Away
57.3% (768)
57.9% (660)
By Period
Toews
Staal
P1
60.2%
61.8%
P2
60.7%
55.7%
P3
55.9%
56.1%
OT
44.8%
56.8%
Final 5 min
61.8%
60.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
58.6%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2016 | 2 | 10:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 1 | 16:49 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 1 | 11:10 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 3 | 19:57 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 3 | 14:18 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 3 | 14:08 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 2 | 13:40 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 1 | 08:28 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |