Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Toews wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — Rantanen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 61.9% vs Rantanen 49.2% (+14.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rantanen 50.2%
Defensive zone
Toews 97.0%
Neutral zone
Toews 89.4%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 87.5%
87.5%
12.5%
Toews
Rantanen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Toews
Rantanen
Last 5: Toews 4-1 Rantanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rantanen
0
1
Toews
Rantanen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
0
Toews
Rantanen
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Rantanen
Edge
Even Strength
61.1% (650)
50.9% (334)
+10.2%
Power Play
71.9% (192)
43.7% (119)
+28.2%
On power play, Toews has a +28.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rantanen shoots left. Toews is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Toews shoots left. Rantanen is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Toews
Rantanen
Home
64.8% (560)
49.4% (241)
Away
60.6% (381)
48.6% (212)
By Period
Toews
Rantanen
P1
62.3%
47.1%
P2
63.9%
46.7%
P3
62.8%
51.9%
OT
70.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
60.9%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
Rantanen
50.0%▼
52.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 12:44 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 16:51 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 03:00 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 1 | 06:39 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |