Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Toews wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.2% vs Frost 55.7% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 65.5%
Defensive zone
Toews 88.9%
Neutral zone
Toews 86.8%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Toews
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
3
(14 meetings)
11
3
Toews
Frost
Last 10: Toews 8-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
3
Toews
Frost
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
5
0
Toews
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
62.4% (692)
55.0% (686)
+7.4%
Power Play
59.3% (135)
60.8% (166)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
100.0% (5)
-53.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +53.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Toews is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Toews shoots left. Frost is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Toews
Frost
Home
60.9% (435)
56.1% (428)
Away
61.8% (424)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Toews
Frost
P1
60.2%
58.9%
P2
65.7%
55.4%
P3
58.2%
54.1%
OT
75.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▬
61.5%
61.4%
Frost
66.0%▲
60.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | OT | 00:55 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:03 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 09:50 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 05:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 03:27 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:34 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:22 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:05 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:38 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |