Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Frost 55.7% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 64.0%
Defensive zone
Toews 89.2%
Neutral zone
Toews 87.2%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
Toews
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
3
(14 meetings)
11
3
Toews
Frost
Last 10: Toews 8-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
3
Toews
Frost
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
5
0
Toews
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
54.9% (701)
+7.6%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
60.8% (166)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
100.0% (5)
-53.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +53.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Toews shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Home / Away
Toews
Frost
Home
60.9% (435)
56.0% (443)
Away
62.0% (434)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Toews
Frost
P1
59.8%
58.9%
P2
65.7%
55.3%
P3
58.8%
54.0%
OT
80.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | OT | 00:55 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:03 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 09:50 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 05:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 03:27 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:34 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:22 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:05 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:38 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |