Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Toews wins 63.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.4% vs Dowd 53.3% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 13-2 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 96.6%
Defensive zone
Toews 59.8%
Neutral zone
Toews 79.2%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 88.3%
88.3%
11.7%
Toews
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
2
(15 meetings)
13
2
Toews
Dowd
Last 10: Toews 8-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
8
1
Toews
Dowd
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
4
1
Toews
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (901)
55.4% (771)
+2.6%
Power Play
69.5% (226)
57.1% (7)
+12.4%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (209)
45.5% (165)
+6.2%
On power play, Toews has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Toews is 63.5% vs right-shot opponents (515).
Toews shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Toews
Dowd
Home
59.3% (637)
58.2% (462)
Away
58.7% (699)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Toews
Dowd
P1
61.5%
55.6%
P2
55.2%
50.5%
P3
60.0%
53.9%
OT
70.6%
75.0%
Final 5 min
57.9%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2021 | 3 | 19:57 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 3 | 04:59 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 2 | 09:53 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 1 | 12:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 16:17 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 10:31 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 01:50 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 19:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 15:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 08:36 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 06:01 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 03:56 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 00:48 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |