Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.4% vs Sturm 52.5% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 61.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 76.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 58.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 70.3%
29.7%
70.3%
Toews
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Toews
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Toews
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (901)
54.0% (480)
+4.0%
Power Play
69.5% (226)
28.6% (7)
+40.9%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (209)
50.0% (102)
+1.7%
On power play, Toews has a +40.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Toews shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Toews
Sturm
Home
59.3% (637)
54.0% (287)
Away
58.7% (699)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Toews
Sturm
P1
61.5%
53.5%
P2
55.2%
51.0%
P3
60.0%
55.1%
OT
70.6%
20.0%
Final 5 min
57.9%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 16:26 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 13:11 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |