Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 61.9% vs Sturm 55.2% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 92.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 52.3%
Neutral zone
Toews 76.9%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Toews
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Toews
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
61.1% (650)
56.1% (716)
+5.0%
Power Play
71.9% (192)
67.7% (31)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
59.6% (99)
51.1% (133)
+8.5%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Toews is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Toews shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Toews
Sturm
Home
64.8% (560)
55.6% (412)
Away
60.6% (381)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Toews
Sturm
P1
62.3%
59.6%
P2
63.9%
52.0%
P3
62.8%
55.5%
OT
70.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
60.9%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 05:00 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 06:54 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |