Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Toews wins 71.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Kapanen 47.8% (+13.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 92.0%
Defensive zone
Toews 89.5%
Neutral zone
Toews 91.7%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 91.6%
91.6%
8.4%
Toews
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Toews
Kapanen
Last 6: Toews 5-1 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
1
Toews
Kapanen
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Kapanen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
47.5% (514)
+15.0%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
55.0% (40)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
39.5% (38)
+7.4%
On even strength, Toews has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Toews is 71.8% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Toews shoots left. Kapanen is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (438).
Home / Away
Toews
Kapanen
Home
60.9% (435)
47.9% (307)
Away
62.0% (434)
47.0% (285)
By Period
Toews
Kapanen
P1
59.8%
42.7%
P2
65.7%
51.4%
P3
58.8%
48.4%
OT
80.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 13:28 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:49 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 08:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 02:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 12:28 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |