Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.4% vs Stastny 55.4% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 66.9%
Defensive zone
Stastny 51.1%
Neutral zone
Stastny 62.8%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Toews
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Toews
Stastny
Last 8: Toews 3-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Toews
Stastny
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Stastny
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
2
Toews
Stastny
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (901)
59.2% (370)
-1.2%
Power Play
69.5% (226)
40.9% (44)
+28.6%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (209)
51.7% (58)
+0.0%
On power play, Toews has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Toews shoots left. Stastny is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Toews
Stastny
Home
59.3% (637)
57.7% (215)
Away
58.7% (699)
55.6% (257)
By Period
Toews
Stastny
P1
61.5%
57.7%
P2
55.2%
54.2%
P3
60.0%
57.7%
OT
70.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.9%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 18:57 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 18:51 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 06:57 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 03:25 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 2 | 08:55 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 2 | 09:42 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 2 | 06:40 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |