Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 61.9% vs Stastny 56.3% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 58.5%
Defensive zone
Toews 53.7%
Neutral zone
Stastny 53.7%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Toews
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Toews
Stastny
Last 8: Toews 4-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
2
Toews
Stastny
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Stastny
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
61.1% (650)
57.5% (412)
+3.6%
Power Play
71.9% (192)
60.0% (65)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
59.6% (99)
44.4% (9)
+15.2%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Toews is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Toews shoots left. Stastny is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Toews
Stastny
Home
64.8% (560)
58.3% (276)
Away
60.6% (381)
56.7% (210)
By Period
Toews
Stastny
P1
62.3%
63.7%
P2
63.9%
57.3%
P3
62.8%
50.4%
Final 5 min
60.9%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 14:01 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 09:59 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 16:34 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 16:27 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 14:26 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:36 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 13:19 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |