Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Colton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Colton 51.1% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 55.1%
Defensive zone
Colton 69.3%
Neutral zone
Colton 59.7%
Result
Ross Colton favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Toews
Colton
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Toews
Colton
Last 7: Toews 3-4 Colton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Colton
0
2
Toews
Colton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Colton
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Colton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Colton
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,079)
51.6% (1,803)
+5.6%
Power Play
63.3% (3,254)
48.8% (162)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
34.5% (29)
+19.1%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Colton shoots left. Toews is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,675).
Toews shoots left. Colton is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,297).
Home / Away
Toews
Colton
Home
59.7% (9,212)
52.0% (1,015)
Away
56.1% (8,962)
50.3% (979)
By Period
Toews
Colton
P1
58.6%
53.7%
P2
57.9%
52.6%
P3
57.3%
47.9%
OT
58.9%
25.0%
Final 5 min
58.2%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
57.9%
Colton
46.0%▲
44.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 12:44 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 01:38 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 04:57 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 02:10 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 1 | 02:04 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 07:21 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |