Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Poehling 47.4% (+14.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 92.8%
Defensive zone
Poehling 59.4%
Neutral zone
Toews 77.7%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
Toews
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Toews
Poehling
Last 8: Toews 5-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Toews
Poehling
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
4
2
Toews
Poehling
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
49.8% (626)
+12.7%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
58.3% (12)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
38.2% (207)
+8.7%
On even strength, Toews has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Toews shoots left. Poehling is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Toews
Poehling
Home
60.9% (435)
47.3% (404)
Away
62.0% (434)
46.9% (441)
By Period
Toews
Poehling
P1
59.8%
53.5%
P2
65.7%
39.4%
P3
58.8%
49.1%
OT
80.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
58.3%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:00 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 10:48 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 01:27 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:48 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:18 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:26 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |