Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Gourde 46.0% (+15.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 88.2%
Defensive zone
Toews 50.2%
Neutral zone
Toews 72.5%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
Toews
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Toews
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
47.2% (654)
+15.3%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
45.0% (20)
+14.6%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
32.2% (87)
+14.7%
On even strength, Toews has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Toews shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Toews
Gourde
Home
60.9% (435)
44.1% (322)
Away
62.0% (434)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Toews
Gourde
P1
59.8%
42.4%
P2
65.7%
49.8%
P3
58.8%
44.3%
OT
80.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 03:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |